Brewer FX Daily Forex Commentary

Daily Forex Commentary March 11, 2010

2010-03-11T23:29:00Z

March 11, 2010

U.S. Dollar falls as Demand for Risk Surges

The U.S. Dollar declined into the close after trading in a tight range most of the day. A strong surge in the equity markets late in the session confirmed investor demand for risky assets, thereby pressuring the lower yielding Dollar.

At times on Thursday, traders were demanding lower yielding currencies in response to an overnight report that showed China’s consumer-price index spiked higher in February. Investors speculated that its central bank would have to raise ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 10, 2010

2010-03-10T22:40:00Z

March 10, 2010

Euro Building Support Base for Potential Upside Breakout

The U.S. Dollar was mixed in light trading at the close in an unusual day as the normal correlations between the Dollar, gold and equities at times were not working. The lack of major U.S. economic reports this week is still influencing the trade although this will change with Thursday’s Weekly Initial Jobs Claims Report.

Early in the session it was clear that traders were looking for risk as the stock indices rose with the March ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 9, 2010

2010-03-10T02:49:00Z

March 9, 2010

Dollar Finishes Higher despite Strength in Equity Markets

The U.S. Dollar finished higher on Tuesday against most major currencies in another round of light trading. Traders opened the New York session averse to risk, but shifted this sentiment a few times during the day session. The Dollar bent at times, but never broke.

Firmer U.S. equity markets triggered renewed demand for risk at the mid-session. This helped to weaken the Dollar while fueling a rally in the higher yielding Australian Dollar and New ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 8, 2010

2010-03-08T23:09:00Z

March 8, 2010

Trader Confidence in Euro Building; Shorts Lighten Positions

The U.S. Dollar had a choppy, directionless day. The lack of event risk was likely the main reason for this as well as the easing of the Greek fiscal crisis. Trading could continue in a similar manner over the next few days because the first major report, Weekly Jobless Claims, is not due out until Thursday. This will be followed by the Retail Sales Report on Friday.

The Greenback started the New York session under pressure ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 7, 2010

2010-03-07T20:01:00Z

March 7, 2010

Greek Parliament Approves Budget; Euro Firms

The EUR USD finished the day higher after the Greek parliament approve a package of budget cuts and tax increases. These financial reforms prompted Greece’s prime minister to state that it wouldn’t need aid from other European Union members. This was probably a response to reports from earlier in the week suggesting that Germany and France stood ready to provide aid to the struggling nation. At one point this week, Greece was even willing to seek aid from the ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 4, 2010

2010-03-04T23:38:00Z

March 4, 2010

Dollar Rises after Forex Traders Flock to Safer Assets

The U.S. Dollar was up sharply against all major currencies as investors flocked to safer assets following a poor housing report and concerns about Greece’s ability to shore up its budget deficit. More the most part, it was a quiet trade on Thursday as many big Forex players stood on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

The EUR USD was stable this morning after reports surfaced that investor demand was strong for ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 3, 2010

2010-03-04T03:35:00Z

March 3, 2010

Greek Budget Cuts, Technical Reversal Fuels Euro Rally

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar lost ground to most major currencies except the New Zealand Dollar. Early selling pressure triggered a change in trend when this index took out the last main top at 80.14. In the process a new lower top was formed at 81.34. The charts are indicating that a break to 77.86 is possible over the near-term.

The EUR USD rose on Wednesday to its highest level since February 17th after traders covered ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 2, 2010

2010-03-02T23:16:00Z

March 2, 2010

U.S. Dollar Finishes Mixed; Euro Reversal Signals Possible Bottom

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar finished mixed against most majors as traders tried to decide whether the market had reached the end of the rally. This morning’s surge to the upside in the March Dollar Index fell short of the recent main top at 81.43 before turning lower. This is an indication that the selling may be greater than the buying at current levels. The formation of a secondary lower top will also be a strong sign ...

Daily Forex Commentary March 1, 2010

2010-03-01T23:29:00Z

March 1, 2010

Better than Expected Canadian GDP Pressures USD CAD

The USD CAD fell sharply lower after a report showed that the fourth quarter Canadian GDP grew faster than economists forecast. Traders erased an earlier gain after the GDP report showed that the economy expanded by 5% versus pre-report guesses of 4.2%.

This morning’s better-than-expected GDP report indicates that the economy has enough positive momentum to perhaps trigger a more hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada at Tuesday’s policy meeting. This robust report could ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 26, 2010

2010-02-28T23:57:00Z

February 26, 2010

U.S. Dollar Set to Turn Lower; Short-covering Drives Euro Higher

The Euro rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that Germany may buy Greek bonds. Shorts read this as a potential vote of confidence for Greece and used the news as an excuse to cover positions. The strong rally put the EUR USD in a position to turn the main trend to up on a rally through the last main top at 1.3692.

Despite a rise in Fourth Quarter GDP, the GBP USD finished lower ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 25, 2010

2010-02-25T23:08:00Z

February 25, 2010

U.K. Facing Major Economic Problems

Sovereign debt issues in Greece and a poor jobs report in the U.S. helped the Dollar finish better against most major currencies. Throughout the day, investors seeking a safe harbor supported the Greenback. Early in the session the Dollar got a boost when rumors spread that the S&P Corp. was considering a cut in Greece’s debt rating. Shortly after the New York session opening, news that Weekly U.S. Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly triggered another strong rally in the Dollar.

...

Daily Forex Commentary February 24, 2010

2010-02-24T23:42:00Z

February 24, 2010

Bernanke Interest Rate Outlook Softens U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar regained most of its mid-session loss to finish only slightly worse than Tuesday. Comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke triggered an early session break after he reiterated the Fed’s stance that interest rates would remain low for an "extended period."

Bernanke also emphasized that last week’s discount rate hike was not an indication of monetary policy tightening. This was a concern for most investors who wanted the Chairman to give a few clues as to ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 23, 2010

2010-02-24T05:05:00Z

February 23, 2010

Dollar Up, Euro Down; Traders await Bernanke Testimony

The U.S. Dollar mounted a strong turnaround on Tuesday following a weaker overnight trade. A surprise drop in consumer confidence in the U.S. and an unexpected fall in German business confidence reversed the Dollar higher against most major currencies. Both reports indicate that there are increasing concerns regarding the strength of the global economic recovery.

The U.S. Dollar traded higher against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment shifted back toward safety. Investors ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 22, 2010

2010-02-23T03:46:00Z

February 22, 2010

Dollar Finishes Mixed in Lifeless Trade; Bernanke Key to Direction

The U.S. Dollar traded mixed in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index finished slightly lower after confirming last Friday’s closing price reversal top.

The lack of major U.S. economic reports on Monday helped hold the Forex markets in a tight range as investors awaited testimony later in the week from Fed Chairman Bernanke. His comments should move the markets especially if they come after a few days of range bound, ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 19, 2010

2010-02-19T23:12:00Z

February 19, 2010

EUR USD Posts Reversal Bottom; Short-Covering Rally Likely Next Week

The U.S. Dollar Index finished higher on Friday while eking out a small gain for the week, but the trading action during today’s session indicates that it may be overbought. Following a strong overnight surge to the upside following the Fed’s discount rate hike late Thursday, the Dollar topped early in the trading session then struggled to stay positive the rest of the day.

By mid-session it looked as if traders were shrugging off ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 18, 2010

2010-02-18T22:54:00Z

February 18, 2010

Euro Plunges to 9-month Low as Fed Hikes Discount Rate

The U.S. Dollar is mounting a strong rally late in the trading session following news that the Fed is set to hike the discount rate by 25 basis points to 75 basis points. While not actually beginning a tighter monetary policy, a hike in the borrowing rate charged to member banks is a sign that the Fed is getting ready to begin removing stimulus and raising other key interest rates. The Dollar is rallying because the ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 17, 2010

2010-02-18T00:00:00Z

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Euro Tumbles on Renewed Concerns Over Greek Budget Resolution

The U.S. Dollar posted strong gains against all major currencies as concerns about Greece’s ability to stick to its new strict budget flared up once again. In addition, a fresh wave of selling pressure hit the Euro after Moody’s Investor Service downgraded ratings on about 4 billion Euros of Greek bank hybrid securities. Both events encouraged investors to seek safety in the U.S. Dollar.

Besides rallying from demand from risk adverse ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 16, 2010

2010-02-16T23:49:00Z

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Euro Posts Biggest Gain in Seven Months

The Euro soared on Tuesday as news that Greece is ahead of its deficit-reduction targets boosted investor confidence. Traders celebrated the news that Greece may not require any bailout from the European Union by driving the EUR USD higher while posting its biggest gain in seven months.

Short-covering was most likely the driving force behind Tuesday’s rally which means a retracement is likely at some time this week. If this market is truly ready ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 12, 2010

2010-02-12T22:35:00Z

February 12, 2010

Dollar Holds on to Gains despite Thin Holiday Trading

The U.S. Dollar soared early Friday following a surprise 50 basis point hike in China’s bank reserve rate. Additional strength was provided by a better than expected U.S. Retail Report. The Dollar pared some of its gains after the University of Michigan Survey fell unexpectedly. Forex market trading has been erratic ahead of the week long Chinese holiday and the extended U.S. weekend.

The aggressive move by China is an attempt to cool credit ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 11, 2010

2010-02-11T23:13:00Z

February 11, 2010

EUR USD Investors Appear Unsure of Direction of Next Move

The Euro made a successful test of last week’s low at 1.3584 and finished close to the middle of this week’s range. Early in the session, the EUR USD broke sharply but buyers came in to defend the low. Volatility is expected to continue to be high as traders are reacting to news - or the lack of news - regarding the possible announcement by the European Union of a plan to support the Greek economy. ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 10, 2010

2010-02-10T22:25:00Z

February 10, 2010

U.S. Dollar Finishes Higher; EU Delays Greece Aid Package

The Euro finished lower as the lack of concrete news regarding the European Union’s plan to guarantee Greece’s debt caused investors to remain nervous and skeptical that a resolution would be reached over the next few days.

The U.S. Dollar finished higher against most major currencies except the Canadian Dollar. The Dollar opened the New York session overnight and managed to hold on to its gains throughout the day although earlier gains against the ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 9, 2010

2010-02-09T23:49:00Z

February 9, 2010

AUD USD Likely to Benefit on Increased Appetite for Risk

The AUD USD and NZD USD benefitted from renewed demand for higher yielding commodities and equities. These two pairs have taken a beating lately as traders dumped asset-related currencies during the height of the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The failure of the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates at its last meeting and the weak New Zealand economic reports pressured both currencies. In addition, China’s decision to begin raising interest rates while cutting back on ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 8, 2010

2010-02-08T22:35:00Z

February 8, 2010

EUR USD Unlikely to Reverse Downtrend until Sovereign Debt Issues are Resolved

The EUR USD traded all over the intraday charts while experiencing a choppy two-sided trade throughout today’s session. Volatility and indecision could be the theme this week as traders are unlikely to make up their minds about reversing this market to the upside until a resolution is reached regarding the sovereign debt issues in the Euro Region. Continue to look for volatility, highlighted by directionless trading until the European Central Bank, European Union or ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 5, 2010

2010-02-05T23:54:00Z

February 5, 2010

Pressure Likely to Remain on EUR USD

The trading week ended with traders still fearing a widening and deepening debt situation in the Euro Region. Optimistic traders are looking for some solution to be reached by either a "pseudo-bailout" by the European Central Bank or European Union. Legally, the ECB or EU cannot offer an outright bailout package so they may have to figure out a way to get around this restriction.

The International Monetary Fund was mentioned as a suitor but the ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 4, 2010

2010-02-04T22:34:00Z

February 4, 2010

Risk Aversion Returns Sending U.S. Dollar Higher

Investors sold higher risk commodities and stocks and bought lower yielding assets on concerns that the sovereign debt issues in Greece will spread to other economies in the Euro Region. The Dollar finished sharply higher versus most major currencies except the Yen.

Investor concerns about the sovereign debt woes in Greece ignited the break in equities and commodities overnight, but a decision by the Bank of England and poor U.S. jobs data helped to accelerate the ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 3, 2010

2010-02-03T22:29:00Z

February 3, 2010

Bank of England May Vote to Extend Quantitative Easing

The GBP USD spiked to the upside last night on the news that U.K. consumer confidence had risen more than expected, but backed down when U.K. services data failed to meet expectations. These stories provided more evidence that the Bank of England will likely leave its quantitative easing program intact or perhaps increase or extend it.

Speculators had been driving this market higher on the notion that the Bank of England members will provide a ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 2, 2010

2010-02-02T23:01:00Z

February 2, 2010

Geithner Comment Fails to Boost Dollar

The U.S. Dollar finished lower, pressured by increased appetite for risky assets, despite a call from Treasury Secretary Geithner for a stronger currency. Trading remained subdued today ahead of central bank meetings on February 4th and the U.S. Jobs Data Report on the 5th.

Technical factors helped draw selling pressure to the Dollar. At the start of the week, the Dollar Index, a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at overbought levels based on the Relative Strength Index ...

Daily Forex Commentary February 1, 2010

2010-02-01T23:08:00Z

February 1, 2010

Aussie Dollar Surges ahead of RBA Announcement

The AUD USD finished higher after earlier weakness. This market also posted a daily closing price reversal bottom. This pattern could help trigger a short-covering rally to .9058 over the near-term. Stronger demand for higher risk assets, short-covering and oversold conditions also contributed to the rally.

On February 2nd the Reserve Bank of Australia will make its monetary policy announcement. There doesn’t appear to be a strong consensus at this time whether it will raise interest ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 29, 2010

2010-01-29T23:12:00Z

January 29, 2010

Longer-Term Outlook Looks Bright for U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar closed out the month of January sharply higher as aggressive buyers helped the Greenback surge to the upside following Friday morning’s better than expected U.S. GDP report. The report, which blew out forecasts, encouraged traders to buy with both hands as investor sentiment turned more optimistic toward a strong U.S. economic recovery.

Earlier in the week, the Dollar was bolstered by a more upbeat statement by the Federal Reserve. Although the FOMC left interest ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 28, 2010

2010-01-28T23:08:00Z

January 28, 2010

Yen Rallies as Investors Shift Assets from Troubled Euro Zone

The Japanese Yen rose on Thursday as investors shifted assets out of the troubled Euro Zone on renewed budget turmoil in Greece. A spike in the cost to insure Greece’s sovereign debt triggered a flight to safety rally which fueled a turnaround in the Yen after earlier weakness. News that a similar situation is developing in Portugal also contributed to the Yen’s strength. The Euro fell to it lowest level against the Dollar as the news ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 27, 2010

2010-01-27T22:51:00Z

January 27, 2010

FOMC Economic Outlook Boosts Dollar

The U.S. Dollar rallied to a new high for the year after the FOMC announcement offered an upbeat assessment of the economy.

While just about everyone knew the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at near 0% for a prolonged period of time, traders did take note of the change in Fed language when it said "the pace of economic activity is likely to be moderate for a time." This was better news than the statement in December which ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 26, 2010

2010-01-26T23:21:00Z

January 26, 2010

Dollar Moves Higher in Lackluster Action; Traders await Fed Policy Announcement

The U.S. Dollar managed to hold on to its overnight gains despite a lackluster trading session. Following a couple of overnight events and intra-day economic reports, the Dollar remained range-bound as many large traders stood aside ahead of tomorrow’s Fed FOMC announcement. Traders are looking for the Fed to leave interest rates alone and to continue to leave them low for "a prolonged period of time."

The Dollar surged overnight, driven by bearish ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 25, 2010

2010-01-26T13:51:00Z

January 25, 2010

Dollar Falters as Sentiment Shifts Back Toward Higher Risk Assets

The U.S. Dollar eased a bit on Monday against most major currencies as investor sentiment shifted back toward putting “risk on.” News today centered on Greece’s effort to shore up its finances by offering five-year bonds. Apparently the offering was well received by the investing public as demand exceeded 20 billion Euros. Early expectations were for demand of 3 to 5 billion Euros. This indicates the European investing community has faith and confidence in ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 22, 2010

2010-01-23T01:44:00Z

Friday, January 22, 2010

Perfect Conditions Drive Dollar Up for Week

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher for the week, boosted by a weaker Euro, news that China was tightening its monetary policy and an increase in demand for lower yielding assets. Late in the week, the Dollar flattened out after President Obama proposed restrictions on financial institution trading. The early read is that investors feel the proposal is Dollar negative and in the long-run may discourage investors from buying U.S. assets.

The EUR ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 21, 2010

2010-01-21T22:47:00Z

January 21, 2010

USD JPY Reverses Four Day Rally on Renewed Risk Aversion

The USD JPY reversed its four day rally as traders sought safety in lower yielding assets following an announcement by President Obama to curb trading at financial institutions. The immediate reaction was to sell higher risk assets after Obama called for a reduction in the size and trading activities of financial institutions. The downside reversal in the USD JPY sets up a test of a major 50% price at 89.30.

The U.S. Dollar ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 20, 2010

2010-01-20T22:55:00Z

January 20, 2010

Dollar Index Ready to Challenge December High

The U.S. Dollar advanced sharply higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the news that China was reining in bank loans in an attempt to cool off the economy. The Cash Dollar Index finished slightly below the December high at 78.45. Upside momentum is strong enough to take out this price tomorrow.

The availability of easy money through government stimulus and favorable loan conditions helped fuel a huge surge in the Chinese economy. The pace of the growth is ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 19, 2010

2010-01-19T23:20:00Z

January 19, 2010

Euro takes Beating as Greek Debt Woes Continue

The EUR USD took a beating on Tuesday. This current round of weakness is being triggered by mounting concerns about Greece’s ability to resolve its debt issues.

Traders are expecting the European finance ministers to hold their ground and maintain that Greece solves its own problems. This could be an indication that this problem will persist as Greece is having problems reaching a budget solution. In addition, similar problems could crop up with Spain and Portugal. ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 14, 2010

2010-01-14T23:26:00Z

January 14, 2010

Employment, Consumer Spending Concerns Pressure Dollar

The U.S. Dollar finished lower against a basket of currencies for the fifth straight day in sluggish trading. Contributing to the weakness were reports that U.S. Jobless Claims rose last week by the largest amount in five weeks and U.S. Retail Sales were down.

Both reports show that employment is still a major issue affecting the economy as well as consumer spending. Traders pressed the Dollar most of the day and wouldn’t allow it to get away ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 13, 2010

2010-01-13T23:29:00Z

January 13, 2010

AUD USD Traders Waiting for Important Employment Data

The U.S. Dollar finished lower after a choppy trading session. Even upbeat Beige Book data failed to stimulate buying interest in the Dollar. The Greenback traded higher last night after Germany announced that its economy had shrunk more than expected in 2009. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Plosser also triggered a rise in the Dollar.

The Dollar could not hold its earlier strength and broke sharply lower ahead of the New ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 12, 2010

2010-01-12T23:12:00Z

January 12, 2010

Dollar Loses Ground to GBP USD and USD JPY

The U.S. Dollar finished higher on Tuesday against a trade-weighted basket of currencies while losing ground to the British Pound and Japanese Yen. Risk aversion was high as demand for safer assets rose after China’s central bank took action to prevent the economy from overheating. This was a strong hint that it was prepared to raise interest rates and end government stimulus measures.

The GBP USD opened slightly better and advanced throughout the day ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 11, 2010

2010-01-12T02:57:00Z

January 11, 2010

Canadian Dollar Posts Reversal Bottom on Hawkish Prime Minister Comments

Surges in natural gas, crude oil and gold helped put the Canadian Dollar in a strong position early in the trading session until Canadian Prime Minister Harper expressed his concerns about the effects of a strong Canadian Dollar on the economy. This breaking news helped trigger a short-covering rally and formed a closing price reversal bottom. This pattern is likely to trigger a 2 to 3 day retracement to the upside.

The U.S. ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 10, 2010

2010-01-10T21:32:00Z

January 10, 2010

Bearish Jobs Data Weakens Dollar; Charts Indicate More Downside Pressure Likely

The U.S. Dollar finished sharply lower on Friday following the release of a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December. This bearish number surprised traders who were looking for evidence that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in December.

Economists were looking for December Non-Farm Payrolls to rise by 10,000. Most came to this conclusion because of weekly initial claims and other employment index reports. However, ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 7, 2010

2010-01-07T22:30:00Z

January 7, 2010

Forex Traders Looking for Friendly U.S. Jobs Data

The U.S. Dollar held on to most of its gains as traders await Friday’s U.S. employment report. On Thursday, the Weekly U.S. Initial Claims report showed that fewer workers filed for unemployment benefits last week. This news helped boost an already strong Dollar. The ability to hold on to its gains into the close may be an indication that investors are anticipating a friendly U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report tomorrow. Volume has dropped off noticeably which is a strong ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 6, 2010

2010-01-07T03:16:00Z

January 6, 2010

Shift in Risk Sentiment Hurting U.S. Dollar

The Dollar finished the day near its low as a late session report from the Federal Reserve helped diminish expectations for an interest rate hike. Today’s Federal Reserve minutes showed that officials were unconvinced about the strength of the recovery and that inflation should remain under control for now.

Although the Fed had forecast growth for 2010 and 2011, it stated that a faster paced recovery should not be strong enough to quickly turn around the unemployment ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 5, 2010

2010-01-05T23:06:00Z

January 5, 2010

Reversal Bottom Sets Up Potential Dollar Rally

The U.S. Dollar was able to mount a comeback after early session weakness. A lower than expected U.S. pending home sales report helped raise fears that the Fed would once again leave interest rates at historically low levels and fueled increased demand for the Dollar as a safe-haven investment. Oversold conditions also contributed to today’s rally. Today’s closing price reversal bottom indicates the start of a 2 - 3 day rally to 77.77 - 77.93.

The ...

Daily Forex Commentary January 4, 2010

2010-01-05T05:28:00Z

January 4, 2010

Dollar Poised for Acceleration to Downside

Monday’s strong rally in global stock indices and break in the Dollar renewed talk of the resumption of the negative correlation between global equity markets and the U.S. Dollar. Aggressive traders appeared to be already placing bets today that the Fed would continue to leave interest rates low for a prolonged period of time. Today’s action suggests that investors could be getting comfortable with taking on more risky assets once again.

The chart pattern in the U.S. ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 30, 2009

2009-12-30T23:28:00Z

December 30, 2009

Dollar Ekes Out Small Gain After Choppy Session

The U.S. Dollar finished higher after a choppy trading session, but well off its high. The Greenback opened higher after global equity markets weakened following an overnight drop in demand for higher risk assets. The Dollar surged to its high for the day against most major currencies after the release of a better than expected Chicago PMI report.

This report signaled that the U.S. economy is recovering from the recession. After the early morning rush to ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 29, 2009

2009-12-29T23:03:00Z

December 29, 2009

Friendly Consumer Confidence Report Underpins Dollar

The U.S. Dollar managed to hold on to its gains after erasing earlier losses following the release of a friendly Consumer Confidence report. Although the reported figure of 52.9 was slightly less than estimates, it still reflected continuing strength in the economy. This morning the S&P/Case Shiller report on home prices was flat. There was almost no reaction to this report by Forex traders. Expect more of the same trading tomorrow as major players remain absent during the holiday week. ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 28, 2009

2009-12-28T23:11:00Z

December 28, 2009

Concern about Increasing U.S. Debt Pressures Dollar

The U.S. Dollar traded most of the day in a range and finished lower. With the lack of major economic news this week, global investors were forced to worry about another round of U.S. debt. Throughout the week, the Treasury is going to add to its already massive debt pile by another $118 billion.

Aside from the debt worries, trading is thin and lifeless ahead of the New Year holiday. One can only speculate as to where ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 25, 2009

2009-12-25T16:46:00Z

December 25, 2009

Improving Economy Key to Dollar Strength

The U.S. Dollar finished lower against a basket of currencies under thin, pre-holiday trading conditions. Thursday’s weakness could have been worse had it not been for better than expected initial claims and durable goods. Both reports signaled an improving economy.

Although it is difficult to gauge the actual reasons behind the weakness, it’s easy to speculate that the huge run-up in the Dollar the past few weeks is making it ripe for profit-taking.

The ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 22, 2009

2009-12-23T03:01:00Z

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Dollar Gains on Upbeat Outlook for Economy

The U.S. Dollar rallied following the release of a better than expected existing home sales report and never relinquished its gains. The rise in the Dollar following the release of good economic news is another sign that investors are returning to watching traditional fundamentals for direction. Gains are being limited this week because of thin holiday trading. Longs should watch out for pre-holiday profit-taking tomorrow and Thursday.

The Dollar received a boost overnight ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 21, 2009

2009-12-21T23:49:00Z

Monday, December 21, 2009

Dollar Traders Returning to Traditional Fundamentals

Today’s rally in the U.S. Dollar appears to be a sign that risk sentiment may not be the driving force behind price action much longer. The action today suggests that funds are being reallocated into the Dollar and stocks in an effort to capture a rise from the continuing improvement in the U.S. economy. The positive trade in both the stock and Dollar markets is a sign that investors are shifting back to watching traditional fundamentals for ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 20, 2009

2009-12-21T01:57:00Z

December 20, 2009

Debt Issues This Week Could Drive Dollar Higher

The U.S. Dollar finished at a 15-week high buoyed by debt concerns in Greece and the Fed’s release of more detailed plans to remove excess liquidity from the financial system.

The U.S. Dollar opened last week lower after Abu Dhabi ponied up $10 billion to shore up the debt of Dubai World. This break was short-lived, however, because speculators bought on the break in anticipation of more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. The Dollar remained ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 17, 2009

2009-12-17T23:33:00Z

December 17, 2009

Flight to Safety Rally Sends Dollar to Three-Month High

The U.S. Dollar reached a three-month high today. The strong surge to the upside was fueled by S&P’s downgrade of Greece’s credit rating. This strong rally started last night but gained strength throughout the day on the possibility of more downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt. Investors treated the Dollar as a safe-haven investment on the fear that the spread of bad debt throughout the region could trigger serious banking issues, curtailing the current economic recovery.

...

Jay Norris Video Commentary December 16, 2009

2009-12-16T22:31:00Z

Welcome to Jay Norris' Forex Trend Maps, a recap of the Forex Markets daily, posted after 4:30 PM (CST). For more information, please contact Jay at 1-800-971-2154 or at 312-896-3986.

Click on the link below to view today's charts and hear Jay's analysis.

http://www.screencast.com/t/NTE4YjI1Y

www.brewerfx.com
forexblog@brewerfx.com

DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 16, 2009

2009-12-16T22:00:00Z

December 16, 2009

Fed’s Statement Fails to Fuel Dollar Rally

The U.S. Dollar erased earlier losses after the Federal Reserve released its monetary policy statement. The Dollar turned higher after trading most of the day lower after the Federal Open Market Committee offered more detailed plans to remove excess liquidity from the financial system.

The Fed also offered commentary on the economy, saying that deterioration in the labor market is "abating." This statement is a reaction to the decline in the unemployment rate earlier in the ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 15, 2009

2009-12-15T23:12:00Z

December 15, 2009

Dollar Traders Betting on Hawkish News from the Fed

The U.S. Dollar traded higher all day as speculators increased bets that the Fed would issue a more hawkish monetary policy statement tomorrow. Last night the main trend turned up on the weekly chart leading to a firm opening this morning.

The EUR USD stopped just short of piercing 1.4500. Overnight, sellers hit the Euro hard following the release of the German ZEW Economic Expectation Index report. Better than expected U.S. economic data and ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 14, 2009

2009-12-15T03:30:00Z

December 14, 2009

Dollar Falls after Abu Dhabi Aids Dubai

The U.S. Dollar finished lower today against a basket of trade weighted currencies. The Greenback was under pressure all day and never quite recovered following an overnight announcement that Dubai received $10 billion in financing from Abu Dhabi to pay part of the debt held by the state-owned Dubai World.

Global investor concerns were eased by this event because it helped to alleviate the need to use the Dollar as a safe haven investment. Last week, the ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 11, 2009

2009-12-14T02:21:00Z

December 11, 2009

Dollar Bulls Get Their Wish

Dollar bulls who wanted to see growth in the labor market and an increase in consumer spending received the latter in the form of a better than expected retail sales report and a jump in consumer sentiment on Friday. The bullish response by investors to the friendly retail and consumer confidence numbers is a sign that speculators believe the Fed has enough evidence to hike interest rates sooner than expected.

The U.S. Dollar soared to the upside to ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 10, 2009

2009-12-10T22:27:00Z

December 10, 2009

Dollars Falls Sharply against Pacific Rim Currencies

Stronger global equity markets contributed to the weakness in the Dollar early in the trading session as traders once again increased demand for more risky assets after reassessing U.S. economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Dollar finished mixed against most major currencies with the massive losses coming against Pacific Rim markets.

The NZD USD posted a strong gain fueled by the prospect of an ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 9, 2009

2009-12-10T04:25:00Z

December 9, 2009

Forex Traders Reassessing Long Dollar Positions

The U.S. Dollar finished the day session lower in lackluster trading with very few highlights. Profit-taking overnight led to a lower opening, but news that S&P lowered the credit rating of Spain helped the Dollar limit losses. Later in the trading session, the Dollar reversed course and began to lose ground once again as traders reassessed the fundamentals and decided that the recent rally may have been overdone.

Global debt concerns are the main issue this week ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 8, 2009

2009-12-09T04:16:00Z

December 8, 2009

U.S. Dollar Rises as Traders Seek Safety Against Risk

The stronger Dollar led stock market investors to pare positions as traders become more averse to risk. U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower following a sell-off which began in Asia and Europe overnight and spread to the U.S. throughout the day. Traders are trying to protect profits at the end of the year as chart patterns suggest there is more downside than upside potential at current levels. Traders are reacting to global debt concerns a lot faster ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 7, 2009

2009-12-08T04:39:00Z

December 7, 2009

Dollar Fails to Attract Fresh Buying Interest

The U.S. Dollar see-sawed most of the day, before closing lower. The lack of economic reports caused a choppy two-sided trade. In addition, many traders stayed on the sidelines or evened up position ahead of this week’s many central bank reports. In most cases the Dollar continued its strength in a follow-through rally from Friday, but failed to hold on to its gains by the close. Technically, the Dollar Futures Index took out Friday’s high but failed to attract ...

Jay Norris Video Commentary December 7, 2009

2009-12-07T22:30:00Z

DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures ...

A Webinar with Jay Norris: The Advantages of Using Support and Resistance in Your Trading

2009-12-07T18:30:00Z

The Advantages of Using Support and Resistance in Your Trading

Click Here to View Jay's Webinar

About Jay Norris

Jay worked on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for over 20 years for various institutional firms including ...

A Webinar with Jay Norris: Improving Your Trading Focus and Organize Your Daily Routine into a Systematic Approach

2009-12-07T18:29:00Z

Improving Your Trading Focus and Organize Your Daily Routine into a Systematic Approach

Click Here to View Jay's Webinar

About Jay Norris

Jay worked on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for over 20 years for various ...

A Webinar with Jay Norris: Mastering Higher Time Frame Confirmation

2009-12-07T18:24:00Z

Mastering Higher Time Frame Confirmation

Click Here to View Jay's Webinar

About Jay Norris

Jay worked on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for over 20 years for various institutional firms including Dean Witter, Daiwa Securities, ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 4, 2009

2009-12-06T23:39:00Z

December 4, 2009

Dollar Rally Could Make Short Sweat

On Friday the U.S. Dollar posted its biggest gain in weeks against a basket of currencies. The strong up move was triggered by a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed a decrease in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10%. The pace of job losses also declined and there was a revision to the better in October.

Traders bought the Dollar on the thought the Fed would begin reducing stimulus and raising interest rates sooner than previously ...

Jay Norris Video Commentary December 4, 2009

2009-12-04T22:43:00Z

DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 3, 2009

2009-12-03T22:46:00Z

December 3, 2009

Forex Traders Already Thinking about U.S. Employment Report

The U.S. Dollar closed mixed on Thursday against most major currencies on light volume as traders fled shortly after the U.S. initial claims number and ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Trading was so thin that even a late session sell-off in U.S. stock indices could not fuel a robust close in the Dollar index.

The U.S. Dollar Index withstood another test of the low for the week early in the trading session at 74.31 and last ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 2, 2009

2009-12-02T23:14:00Z

December 2, 2009

Dollar Remains Firm after Fed Releases Beige Book

The U.S. Dollar finished the day higher against a basket of major currencies. The weaker than expected ADP Employment Report encouraged investors to think twice about buying higher yielding assets. This afternoon’s Fed Beige Book offered nothing new for investors to react to and the Dollar held its ground.

The EUR USD erased all of this morning’s earlier gains and finished lower for the day. Traders were a little hesitant about getting aggressively long at $1.51 ahead ...

Daily Forex Commentary December 1, 2009

2009-12-01T22:46:00Z

December 1, 2009

Dollar Falls as Dubai Debt Concerns Subside

The U.S. Dollar fell to a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as concerns about debt issues in Dubai subsided, leading to increased demand for higher yielding currencies. Further weakness in the Dollar was attributed to a report that Chinese manufacturing increased at its fastest pace in five years.

The weakness in the Dollar helped boost commodity and stock demand as investors once again felt comfortable adding more risk to their portfolios.

Support ...

Daily Forex Commentary November 30, 2009

2009-11-30T23:21:00Z

November 30, 2009

Dollar Tries to Recover but Fails into Close

The U.S. Dollar tried to mount a comeback at the mid-session but failed to sustain upside momentum and finished the day down but off the low. The Dollar was down most of the day and traders renewed interest in riskier assets on optimism that the Dubai World credit issue would resolve itself. Investors seemed tentative to pound the Dollar lower which could be an indication that problems are not over. Breaking last week’s Dollar Index low at 74.27 ...

Daily Forex Commentary for November 28, 2009

2009-11-29T05:35:00Z

November 28, 2009

U.S. Dollar Finishes Higher but Well Off High

The U.S. Dollar gave back over 50% of its early morning gains as investors took profits after a strong two-day rise. The inability to break equity markets lower after the opening helped drive up demand for higher risk assets. Investors began selling the Dollar after it became clear that there would be no panic selling of higher risk assets.

Overnight Thursday into Friday the Dollar climbed sharply higher as global investors dumped stocks and commodities on concerns ...